If you’ve been watching the weather headlines, you’ve probably heard one phrase over and over: El Niño. In simple terms, El Niño means unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that can help steer more storms toward the West Coast, potentially making for a wetter and snowier winter at Big Bear Mountain Resort (BBMR).

But there’s an important distinction to keep in mind: rain in the beach cities doesn’t always mean snow in the mountains. And just like the Mountain Operations team can’t just make snow* whenever they want, Mother Nature is ultimately in charge.
One of the most important factors for both natural snowfall and snowmaking is temperature. Moisture is great, but the temperatures also have to drop enough for that moisture to turn into snow in the mountains. Those cold temperatures typically start to arrive around mid-November, and once they do, the combination of storms and cold air can produce significant snowfall at Snow Valley, Snow Summit, and Bear Mountain.

So, what does that mean for the upcoming ski and snowboard season?
A winter mrning sunrise with a blue, pink, and purple clear sky and snow machine guns turned on at the base area of Snow Valley.
* Fun fact: Snowmaking machines make real snow! It’s not fake snow made from artificial material, it’s simply water turned into snow. The snowmaking machines spray tiny droplets of water into the cold air, and when the temperature and humidity are just right, those tiny droplets freeze as they fall, forming ice crystals that become snow. Read more on snowmaking.
A view from the chairlift looking ahead during a low visibility winter storm day at one of the Big Bear Mountain Resort resorts.

First things first: what is El Niño?

Typically, winds push warm surface water across the Pacific toward Australia and Indonesia. During El Niño, those winds weaken, so warm water moves back toward the eastern Pacific and closer to Southern California. That warmer ocean water changes the atmosphere above it, which changes the jet stream and storm paths.
Southwest Radar
The Southwest Radar Storm Tracker shows precipitation moving toward the San Bernardino Mountains. Watch the radar to see where storms are, how strong they are, and which direction they’re moving.
5 Day Precipitation Forecast
The 5-Day Precipitation Forecast gives you a quick look at how much precipitation is expected over the next five days. Use it to track incoming storms and get a sense of when and how much precipitation may arrive. Keep in mind, the forecast can change as the storm gets closer.
BBMR sits at a lower elevation than its Ikon Pass sister resorts in California, including Mammoth Mountain in the central Sierra Nevada and Palisades Tahoe in the northern Sierra Nevada near Lake Tahoe. While BBMR’s elevation means snowfall can be more temperature dependent, the resort’s snowmaking capabilities and Southern California location give it plenty of opportunity to build a strong base when winter storms move in.

A view from the top of a Big Bear Mountain Resort chairlift, during a stormy winter day, with the chairlift buried under fresh snow and the trees in the background covered with a white blanket of snow.

So what could El Niño mean for BBMR and how you can make the most of the season ahead?

In general, an El Niño winter often means:

  • Bigger/wetter Pacific storms
  • More mountain snow
  • Temperatures can be different from normal depending on the storm

What it really means for BBMR:

A wetter winter can be great news for the mountains, but it may also mean different conditions than you’re used to at BBMR.

More storms can mean snowier days, more fresh powder, and deeper base depths, but it can also mean changing road conditions and potentially longer travel times. Give yourself extra time, check road conditions before heading up, and be prepared for winter driving.

And if you’re used to BBMR’s classic bluebird, sunny ski days, you may want to prepare for a few more cloudy, snowy, or wet-weather days.

That means bringing the right layers and different goggle lenses for variable light conditions. Read our snow goggle guide for help and check out our partner, Smith Optics, to make sure you have the right gear. If you’re a pass holder, you can save up to 15% on goggles at the Sports Shop.

An adult in a green snow jacket with black helmet and yellow snow mitts riding on a chairlift with the safety bar down with their kiddo wearing a green and black jacket with black helmet and goggles during a snow day.

The snow itself may also feel different. Warmer, wetter storms, typically produce heavier, wetter snow rather than the lighter, drier snow you might be accustomed to.

Most importantly, check the mountain report and resort operations pages before you head up. Weather can change quickly, and certain lifts, terrain, or resort operations may be adjusted or temporarily closed based on conditions.
Planning Your Trip

If you're trying to decide when to plan a ski or snowboard trip, here's current long-range outlook:
    • Possible, but Risky

      Don't count on a fully developed natural snowpack this early. The resorts have extensive snowmaking capabilities, so an early-season trip can still be worthwhile, but conditions are much more dependent on temperatures and snowmaking than later in the season.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 6"
      SS: 9"
      BM: 9"
      SV: 5"
      SS: 4"
      BM: 4"
      SV: 0"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      SV: 5"
      SS: 13"
      BM: 13"
      0" 18" 54" 8" 0" 5" 17" 0" 0" 0" 7" 11" 13" 0" 1" 0" 0" 28" 0" 0" 0" 0" 0"
    • Looking Reasonable

      December should be a much safer bet, particularly toward the latter half of the month.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 1"
      SS: 1"
      BM: 1"
      SV: 0"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      SV: 1"
      SS: 1"
      BM: 1"
      SV: 15"
      SS: 9"
      BM: 9"
      32" 18" 48" 17" 0" 27" 22" 24" 8" 25" 38" 36" 18" 56" 16" 13" 6" 18" 10" 0" 0" 0" 0"
    • One of the Best Bets

      January is looking like a particularly attractive month for a trip to the mountains.

      By this point, there should have been multiple opportunities for storms and snowmaking to build base depths. If the current El Niño pattern delivers, January could offer some excellent conditions.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 0"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      SV: 16"
      SS: 11"
      BM: 11"
      SV: 11"
      SS: 12"
      BM: 12"
      SV: 62"
      SS: 43"
      BM: 43"
      0" 69" 1" 22" 10" 108" 31" 4" 3" 11" 3" 9" 69" 4" 44" 14" 12" 34" 10" 0" 0" 49" 0"
    • Probably the Safest Bet

      If your primary goal is maximizing your chances of good snow, February is another strong choice. At this point in the season, there should be a substantial snow base even if the winter gets off to a slower start.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 47"
      SS: 41"
      BM: 41"
      SV: 12"
      SS: 12"
      BM: 12"
      SV: 121"
      SS: 99"
      BM: 99"
      SV: 87"
      SS: 81"
      BM: 81"
      17" 2" 12" 81" 16" 20" 10" 10" 8" 40" 35" 51" 31" 60" 20" 22" 6" 38" 44" 0" 0" 57" 57"
    • Potentially Excellent

      If the winter brings frequent storms, March can offer a great combination of snow, longer days, and more comfortable temperatures. The snow can also become softer and more enjoyable as spring approaches.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 0"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      SV: 51"
      SS: 49"
      BM: 49"
      SV: 52"
      SS: 47"
      BM: 47"
      SV: 106"
      SS: 97"
      BM: 97"
      20" 32" 25" 24" 13" 2" 19" 7" 11" 14" 40" 24" 3" 3" 8" 9" 62" 8" 22" 0" 0" 14" 27"
    • A Wild Card

      By April, conditions become much more dependent on how the season actually plays out. A strong winter could keep the mountain going, while a warm or low-snow season could mean a very different experience.
      25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00
      Snowfall History SV: 0"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      SV: 3"
      SS: 3"
      BM: 3"
      SV: 16"
      SS: 16"
      BM: 16"
      SV: 2"
      SS: 0"
      BM: 0"
      0" 0" 28" 0" 0" 0" 0" 0" 0" 0" 18" 10" 24" 2" 0" 0" 12" 0" 0" 0" 0" 13" 8"
    So… When Is El Niño Arriving?

    The strongest portion of the current forecast signal is centered later this month, November, just in time for Snow Valley, Snow Summit, and Bear Mountain opening day preparations. NOAA expects El Niño to remain strong through the 26/27 winter operating season.

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    Ready for the 26/27 Season?
    An adult in a brown and black winter jacket, black goggles, and a black helmet scanning their season pass at a lift gate at the base area of Bear Mountain on a sunny winter day.
    Buy your season pass online today and get ready to make the most of every storm and powder day.

    Guests who purchase a new BBMR, Snow Valley or Ikon Pass product will receive their pass media cardstock in the mail. If you’re renewing an existing BBMR or Snow Valley pass, you’ll keep your pass from last season to use this season. No need to activate it, just head straight to the gates and scan once the season gets underway.

    Winter pass prices increase in early December, so lock in your pass today and be ready when the next storm rolls in.

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    Winter is coming. And this one could be a fun one.
    IMPORTANT NOTE:

    This blog and its discussion of El Niño are based on weather predictions and forecasts. El Niño does not guarantee a big snow year or any specific amount of snowfall. Weather conditions can change, actual snowfall may vary, and minimum season lengths are not guaranteed.
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